Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack

Time and size of possible bioterror event estimated in real time

A Heavy Traffic Approximation for Queues with Restricted Customer-Server Matchings

We consider a queuing system with n customer classes and m servers. For each class i there is only a subset S(i) of servers that are able to process customer' i requests and they do that using a first-come-first-serve discipline. For this system, we are primarily interested in computing Pij , the steady-state fraction of class-i customers that are served by server j. We also look at stability conditions and standard performance measures like waiting times and queue lengths. Under the assumption that the system is heavy loaded, we approximate Pij as well as the other performance measures. Computational experiments are used to show the quality of our approximations.Operations Management Working Papers Serie

Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events

This paper uses world running records by age to estimate a biological frontier of decline rates. Two models are compared: a linear/quadratic (LQ) model and a non-parametric model. Two estimation methods are used: 1) minimizing the squared difference between the observed records and the modeled biological frontier and 2) using extreme value theory to estimate the biological frontier that maximizes the probability of observing the existing world records by age. The results support the LQ model and suggest there is linear percentage decline up to the late 70’s and quadratic decline after that. The extreme value estimates suggest that the true biological frontier is on average about 8 percent below the existing world records. The estimated age factors are also compared to the World Master Athletics (WMA) age factors. The two sets of age factors are close except at the old ages, where the WMA factors are noticeably smaller. Also, the WMA age factors do not meet an important biological constraint

Managing the demand for public housing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1984.MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ROTCH.Bibliography: leaves 285-286.by Edward Harris Kaplan.Ph.D

Detecting Bioterror Attacks by Screening Blood Donors: A Best-Case Analysis

To assess whether screening blood donors could provide early warning of a bioterror attack, we combined stochastic models of blood donation and the workings of blood tests with an epidemic model to derive the probability distribution of the time to detect an attack under assumptions favorable to blood donor screening. Comparing the attack detection delay to the incubation times of the most feared bioterror agents shows that even under such optimistic conditions, victims of a bioterror attack would likely exhibit symptoms before the attack was detected through blood donor screening. For example, an attack infecting 100 persons with a noncontagious agent such as Bacillus anthracis would only have a 26% chance of being detected within 25 days; yet, at an assumed additional charge of $10 per test, donor screening would cost$139 million per year. Furthermore, even if screening tests were 99.99% specific, 1,390 false-positive results would occur each year. Therefore, screening blood donors for bioterror agents should not be used to detect a bioterror attack

Detecting Bioterror Attacks by Screening Blood Donors: A Best-Case Analysis

To assess whether screening blood donors could provide early warning of a bioterror attack, we combined stochastic models of blood donation and the workings of blood tests with an epidemic model to derive the probability distribution of the time to detect an attack under assumptions favorable to blood donor screening. Comparing the attack detection delay to the incubation times of the most feared bioterror agents shows that even under such optimistic conditions, victims of a bioterror attack would likely exhibit symptoms before the attack was detected through blood donor screening. For example, an attack infecting 100 persons with a noncontagious agent such as Bacillus anthracis would only have a 26% chance of being detected within 25 days; yet, at an assumed additional charge of $10 per test, donor screening would cost$139 million per year. Furthermore, even if screening tests were 99.99% specific, 1,390 false-positive results would occur each year. Therefore, screening blood donors for bioterror agents should not be used to detect a bioterror attack

The long-term evolution of the spin, pulse shape, and orbit of the accretion-powered millisecond pulsar SAX J1808.4-3658

We present a 7 yr timing study of the 2.5 ms X-ray pulsar SAX J1808.4-3658, an X-ray transient with a recurrence time of ~2 yr, using data from the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer covering 4 transient outbursts (1998-2005). We verify that the 401 Hz pulsation traces the spin frequency fundamental and not a harmonic. Substantial pulse shape variability, both stochastic and systematic, was observed during each outburst. Analysis of the systematic pulse shape changes suggests that, as an outburst dims, the X-ray "hot spot" on the pulsar surface drifts longitudinally and a second hot spot may appear. The overall pulse shape variability limits the ability to measure spin frequency evolution within a given X-ray outburst (and calls previous nudot measurements of this source into question), with typical upper limits of |nudot| < 2.5x10^{-14} Hz/s (2 sigma). However, combining data from all the outbursts shows with high (6 sigma) significance that the pulsar is undergoing long-term spin down at a rate nudot = (-5.6+/-2.0)x10^{-16} Hz/s, with most of the spin evolution occurring during X-ray quiescence. We discuss the possible contributions of magnetic propeller torques, magnetic dipole radiation, and gravitational radiation to the measured spin down, setting an upper limit of B < 1.5x10^8 G for the pulsar's surface dipole magnetic field and and Q/I < 5x10^{-9} for the fractional mass quadrupole moment. We also measured an orbital period derivative of Pdot = (3.5+/-0.2)x10^{-12} s/s. This surprising large Pdot is reminiscent of the large and quasi-cyclic orbital period variation observed in the so-called "black widow" millisecond radio pulsars, supporting speculation that SAX J1808.4-3658 may turn on as a radio pulsar during quiescence. In an appendix we derive an improved (0.15 arcsec) source position from optical data.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures; accepted for publication in Ap